Compare the field at a glance.
Fundraising, experience, signature position, and notable backing — one table. Scroll sideways on mobile. Full bios and issue positions below.
| # | Candidate | Status | Cash on hand, Sep 30 (Q3 filing) | Experience | Signature position | Notable backing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alexi Giannoulias | Declared | $19.15M | IL Secretary of State; ex-IL Treasurer | Hire 1,000 officers by 2030; bring back ShotSpotter | SEIU Locals 1 & 73 (50,000 workers, Oct 20); business leaders + building trades (reported); Liam Stanton endorsed |
| 2 |  Susana Mendoza | Declared | $1.73M | IL Comptroller; ex-Chicago City Clerk; 2019 mayoral run | “TRIM” waste; prepay pensions; bring back ShotSpotter | None reported |
| 3 |  Brandon Johnson | Incumbent | $379K | Mayor (2023–); ex-county commissioner; CTU organizer | Record: $300M tax hike rejected 50–0; ShotSpotter canceled | CTU — his political base; ex-organizer |
| 4 |  John Kelly | Declared | $2.52M | CEO, All-Circo; City Hall lobbyist; never held office | 1,000 officers in year one; ~400 CPD back on CTA day one | Ex-Ald. Bill Singer (chair); Chris Chelios (treasurer) |
| 5 |  Joe Holberg | Declared | $1.06M | Founder/CEO, Holberg Financial (sold); ex-math teacher | Freeze property taxes; build 100,000 housing units | Self-funded ($850K+) |
| 6 |  Maria Pappas | Declared | ~$278K* | Cook County Treasurer (1998–) | Tax-watchdog record; no mayoral platform yet | None reported |
| 7 |  Mike Quigley | Declared | $343K | U.S. Rep, IL-05 (2009–); ex-county commissioner | “Austerity budget”: cuts, layoffs, furloughs; 50,000 homes | None reported |
| 8 |  Willie Wilson | Declared | $48K | Founder/CEO, Omar Medical; 4th mayoral run | Pension constitutional amendment; dome Soldier Field | Self-funding (prior cycles) |
| 9 |  Matt Brewer | Declared | $239K | CHA board chair (ousted 6/26); attorney | Grow the tax base, don’t raise taxes; re-envision downtown | None reported |
| 10 |  George Cardenas | Declared | $106K | County Board of Review; 19 yrs as alderman | Cap spending at inflation; hire 500 officers; 50,000 jobs | None reported |
| 11 | Danielle Carter-Walters | Declared | <$100K | Co-founder, Chicago Flips Red; small-business owner | Hire ~2,000 officers; end sanctuary policy in 30 days | None reported |
* Provisional: via secondary roundup; primary source not independently verified. Q3 2026 filings (period ending 9/30/26); Q4 filings due January 2027 will update this table.
The electability formula
Every candidate gets a 0–100 score in five categories. The weighted total sets the ranking above — the full math is below so you can check it. The scores are our analysis; the inputs (cash, polls, ballot status) are facts.
- 40% — Fundraising. Cash on hand from IL State Board of Elections filings. Money buys staff, ads, and field — a campaign that can’t fund them can’t win citywide.
- 25% — Polling. Public polls of the 2027 field — M3 Strategies (Aug 2026; public employees only) and two Mansueto/NORC ChicagoSpeaks waves (June 15–23, 2026; and mid-September 2026, released Oct 19). Candidates leading the anti-Johnson alternatives score highest; no public polling scores a neutral 50. Full details in the polls box below.
- 15% — Ballot/status certainty. Declared = 100; likely but unconfirmed = 60.
- 10% — Name recognition. Prior citywide or statewide office and past mayoral runs.
- 10% — Organizational strength. Reported endorsements, labor backing, and campaign infrastructure.
| Candidate | Fund. | Poll | Status | Name | Org. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexi Giannoulias | 100 | 90 | 100 | 95 | 90 | 96 |
| Susana Mendoza | 60 | 85 | 100 | 90 | 60 | 75 |
| Brandon Johnson | 50 | 55 | 100 | 100 | 85 | 67 |
| John Kelly | 70 | 50 | 100 | 40 | 60 | 66 |
| Joe Holberg | 60 | 50 | 100 | 35 | 50 | 60 |
| Maria Pappas | 35 | 70 | 100 | 85 | 50 | 60 |
| Mike Quigley | 40 | 50 | 100 | 60 | 50 | 55 |
| Willie Wilson | 20 | 50 | 100 | 80 | 40 | 48 |
| Matt Brewer | 30 | 50 | 100 | 30 | 40 | 47 |
| George Cardenas | 20 | 50 | 100 | 45 | 40 | 44 |
| Danielle Carter-Walters | 20 | 50 | 100 | 25 | 30 | 41 |
Fundraising scaled from cash tiers: ~$22M = 100; ~$2M = 70; ~$1M = 60; ~$600K = 50; ~$350K = 40; <$100K = 20. Totals rounded to whole numbers; ranks follow exact values. Pappas cash figure provisional.
Why Johnson ranks third. Incumbency is the most powerful asset in politics — universal name ID, a field operation, and a ten-candidate field that lets him win with roughly a fifth of the vote. That’s not an endorsement; it’s the case for consolidation. See our methodology.
The polls behind the scores
Four polls feed the polling component above. Read the fine print — especially who was asked.
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Key result | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansueto Institute / NORCChicagoSpeaks panel, 2nd wave | Mid-September 2026 (released Oct 19) | n=1,108 Chicago adults | Giannoulias 25%, Johnson ~14% among likely voters; 34% undecided; no other candidate in double digits; Johnson approval 22%, disapproval 53% | Fox32 (via Tribune) · Ninth Ward |
| Mansueto Institute / NORCChicagoSpeaks panel | June 15–23, 2026 | n=1,194 Chicago adults (±4.1) | Johnson approval 23%; only 13.6% of likely voters want him to run again; most excitement for Giannoulias (53%) and Mendoza (47%) | Capitol Fax (via Crain’s) |
| M3 StrategiesRepublican pollster | Not published; aired Aug 31, 2026 | n=475 public employees only (±4.5) — not the general electorate | Johnson 20.1%, Giannoulias 17.6%, Mendoza 11.2%, Wilson 6.9%, Carter-Walters 6.8%, Kelly 5.1%, Quigley 2.3% | WGN report (via Wirepoints) |
| Victory ResearchRepublican pollster; Pappas-commissioned | Sept 27–29, 2025 | n=800 likely voters (±3.5) | Head-to-head only: Pappas 56%, Johnson 23%, undecided 21% | Chicago Magazine |
No official public release was found for the Mansueto/NORC Q2 2026 report or the M3 Strategies memo; links go to the best available reporting. Read the Pappas 56–23 as a measure of Johnson’s unpopularity — it is an internal poll paid for by Pappas, testing only two candidates.