Three consecutive budget crises. A signature tax defeated at the ballot box. Credit downgrades. And a $639.6 million migrant tab — rung up while the city faced the structural deficits the rating agencies are now punishing.
$639.6MSpent on the migrant "new arrivals" mission, Aug 2022 – Dec 2024 — 42% from the city's own Corporate FundInspector General, July 22, 2026
3 firmsCredit-rating agencies that have downgraded Chicago since January 2025Wall Street Journal, Aug 24, 2026
$882MProjected 2027 budget gap — the fourth straight crisisChicago Tribune, Sept 2026
Three budgets, three crises
2024 – 2026
Every Johnson budget has opened with a nine- or ten-figure hole: ~$982 million (2025), $1.15 billion (2026), and a projected ~$882 million for 2027. His answers kept collapsing — the $300M property tax (killed 50–0), the head tax (rejected by his own Finance Committee, then by the full council), a social-media tax and sports-betting tax that went nowhere. The 2026 budget that finally passed leans on one-time revenues and borrowing — exactly the fixes rating agencies warned about.
His signature tax — defeated by voters
March 19, 2024
"Bring Chicago Home" was Johnson's centerpiece campaign promise: raise the real-estate transfer tax on sales over $1 million to fund homelessness services (~$100M/year projected). Voters rejected it, roughly 53%–47%. Critics noted he never specified a spending plan, and most of the burden would have fallen on businesses, not mansions.
The downgrades
January 2025 – August 2026
In January 2025, S&P downgraded Chicago's general-obligation debt, citing the "sizable structural budgetary imbalance" in Johnson's 2025 budget and "lack of willingness among city leadership to cut spending." Kroll followed the same month; Fitch cut the outlook to negative in May 2025; Moody's followed that summer. The Wall Street Journal (Aug 2026): three ratings firms have downgraded Chicago since January 2025 — to levels two or three notches above junk — while pension and debt payments consume roughly 40% of the net operating budget.
The $639.6 million migrant tab
August 2022 – December 2024
Inspector General David Glockner's July 2026 explainer put the final number on the "new arrivals" mission: $639,654,965 serving 46,282 people across 38 shelters — $269.1 million (42%) straight from the city's Corporate Fund, the rest federal, state, and county money. The top vendor, Favorite Healthcare Staffing, collected $400.3 million.
The signature fiasco: Johnson green-lit a winterized tent "base camp" for ~1,500 migrants on a former industrial site in Brighton Park — before the environmental report came back showing elevated mercury, lead, and arsenic. Gov. Pritzker halted it on December 5, 2023. The camp never opened; the state still paid contractor GardaWorld a $1.3 million settlement (despite Pritzker's pledge taxpayers wouldn't pay), and the city spent $1.7 million on remediation and a settlement with the property owner.
To be fair — and the IG said so explicitly — the office found the city's spending reports "accurate and transparent" and 99.6% of sampled invoices followed procurement rules. The charge is the policy choice and the scale, not graft: nearly two-thirds of a billion dollars while the budget bled.